涡度泛橙

TPPN10 PGTW 140005
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (OVER LUZON)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 17.11N
D. 121.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

啥时候升低压？

西中心还未消化

Invest 95W (Philippine name Dodong) has a MEDIUM chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, greater than 1111 km diameter, with extensive gale-force winds over the easternperiphery and a weak core of light winds.
Satellite imagery shows extensive low-level flow wrapping around a broad low-level circulation center (LLCC) exceeding 741 km in diameter with disorganized, building convection over the LLCC.
Microwave imagery shows a broad, building, wrapping convective band to the east of the LLCC. Analysis shows a favorable environment with strong diffluent radial outflow on the southeast edge enhanced by deep easterly flow and moderate equatorial outflow.
There is low (5-15 knot) wind shear through the environment and warm 30-31°C sea surface temperatures. Forecast models are in good agreement that 95W will move northwestward and steadily intensify over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Now that the monsoon circulation is centered over the mountainous region of Luzon, two distinct low pressure regions are evident.
One to the east and the other to the west of Luzon. GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles together with NVGM all show the circulation that deepens to the west of Luzon in the South China Sea will emerge the dominant circulation and eventually become a tropical cyclone that continues to deepen as it tracks northwestward.

不会退化成Sinlaku吧

WTPQ50 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 18.2N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 18.1N 118.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 160000UTC 19.5N 116.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.2N 113.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 180000UTC 20.7N 110.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 190000UTC 21.8N 106.5E 240NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

雷州半岛

GW

南调的话强度上限就高