98B INVEST 201129 1200 7.3N 89.3E IO 15 1010

98B INVEST 201129 1800 7.5N 88.2E IO 20 1008

升Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 92.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. FORMATIVE BANDING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CAN ALSO BE SEEN CLOSING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Medium

98B INVEST 201130 0000 7.9N 87.3E IO 20 1006

A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL

TPIO10 PGTW 300626
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98B (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 30/0545Z
C. 7.03N
D. 87.44E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS

(BOB/05/2020)

98B INVEST 201130 0600 6.5N 87.3E IO 25 1006