THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BETWEEN CHIPS AT THE EXTREME HIGH
END, COAMPS-GFS, COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-HWRF BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS WHICH IS BEING PULLED UPWARDS BY CHIPS, AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS WELL BELOW EVEN THE GPCE CURVE.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE
MESOSCALE MODELS.

13S的眼也在迅速清空中
Center Temp : -11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -60.6C

13S: GELENA (55kt 982mb)

SH, 13, 2019020618, , BEST, 0, 124S, 531E, 55, 982, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 25, 20, 1009, 180, 30, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, GELENA, M,

65kt.980hPa

MFR.00Z.65kt.980hPa
上望+24 95kt

FKIO20 FMEE 070031
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190207/0031Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GELENA
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S1219 E05306
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: S 01KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S1239 E05313
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S1303 E05324
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S1336 E05342
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S1418 E05414
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190207/0600Z=

13S: GELENA (65kt 974mb)

13S: GELENA (65kt 974mb)

恭喜脱水！

TXXS23 KNES 070013
TCSSIO
A. 13S (GELENA)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 12.3S
D. 53.1E
E. ONE/MET-8
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 4.5. NOTHING ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET = 3.5 AND PT = 4.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER