TCFA

TXPS25 KNES 300009
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95P)
B. 29/2330Z
C. 13.1S
D. 143.8E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION WRAPS MORE THAN 2/10 ON LOG BASE 10 SPIRAL AROUND
LLC. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLC
POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BOLL

红黄橙三色

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 6:08 am EST on Sunday 30 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 1 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently extends across far north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further over the coming days, while continuing to extend across this area.
At 5 am AEST Sunday, a number of weak tropical lows were analysed along the monsoon trough including one just off the Peninsula coast, another south of Sudest Island (PNG) and third system near the Solomon Islands. Up until now, the western-most low was the most likely candidate for development in the Eastern region, however it now appears likely to move west onto Cape York Peninsula today, which will limit its potential to develop.
At this stage, no Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for Queensland, though this will be continually reviewed during the course of the weekend. A Severe Weather Warning is current for far north Queensland and can be viewed at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:Moderate

雷达监测

WTPS21 PGTW 300030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 144.7E TO 13.0S 138.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310030Z.//
NNNN

SH, 95, 2018123000, , BEST, 0, 133S, 1438E, 25, 1001, TD,

未来移向卡湾，首先脱离与其他扰动的**

GFS认为95P未来有三次强巅峰
一巅卡湾958
二巅珊瑚海东部955
三巅珊瑚海中部948不封底
同时还有不少伴生系统

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 142.9 degrees East , 130 kilometres east southeast of Weipa and 130 kilometres east of Aurukun .
Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour .
The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Peninsula and parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:43 pm Sunday, 30 December 2018.
Heavy rain and damaging winds likely across far north Queensland
Weather Situation: At 4pm AEST Sunday, a tropical low was tracking in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is situated along a strengthening monsoon trough, which extends across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.
The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday [a Tropical Cyclone Advice is now current]. Regardless of its future movement and development, the tropical low and monsoon trough are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall, damaging winds and elevated tides across far north Queensland, including Torres Strait, over the next few days.
Areas of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, are likely across far north Queensland during the remainder of today and Monday. Six hourly rainfall totals between 120mm to 180mm are likely and isolated, heavier falls are possible with any thunderstorm activity. A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula.
Damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are possible across far north Queensland into this evening. These damaging winds are expected to become more likely into Monday, particularly about Torres Strait and Cape York.
Tides are expected to become higher than predicted through Torres Strait over the next couple of days and it is possible that some islands may see water levels that approach the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tide on Monday.