2

连出多个系统，南太准备活炸

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.4S 146.8E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. A 272333Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION AND A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS WEAK,
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND REACHING
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) STRENGTH BEYOND TAU 48 WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
THEN SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM REACHING TC STRENGTH AND THE
FORECASTED TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

95P INVEST 181228 0600 13.7S 147.1E SHEM 20 1007

都快盛夏了南太风切还是照常肆虐，95P现在是紧挨着强风切区啊

等会估计要被切了

95P INVEST 181228 1800 12.0S 145.1E SHEM 25 1002

95P INVEST 181228 1800 12.0S 144.9E SHEM 25 1001

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 146.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY
184 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281700Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A
281206Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZING LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
GENERALLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT LOOPING MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM
OVER THE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA, AS A SECOND CIRCULATION
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

SH, 95, 2018122900, , BEST, 0, 124S, 1447E, 25, 1002, TD,

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:53 pm Saturday, 29 December 2018.
Heavy rain and damaging winds possible across far north Queensland
Weather Situation: At 10pm AEST, a slow-moving tropical low was located about 90km east-southeast of Lockhart River. The system is currently embedded within the strengthening monsoon trough, which extends from the Arafura Sea and into the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea.
The embedded tropical low is expected to slowly deepen tonight and into Sunday while moving slowly west onto Cape York Peninsula. Uncertainty does exist whether the system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria or remain over Cape York Peninsula on Sunday and into Monday. Regardless of its movement, the tropical low and monsoon trough are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, and localised damaging wind gusts.
Six hourly totals between 120mm to 180mm are likely over coastal and adjacent inland areas north of about Cairns, and extending west across the Peninsula during Sunday. Isolated heavier falls are possible, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.
Damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 90km/h are possible from Sunday afternoon.
Locations which may be affected include Lockhart River, Weipa, Aurukun, Old Mapoon, Coen, Torres Strait Islands, Cooktown, Musgrave, Laura, Hope Vale, Wujal Wujal and Port Douglas.
A flood watch is current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments in the Cape York Peninsula.

SH, 95, 2018122906, , BEST, 0, 124S, 1447E, 25, 1000, TD,
SH, 95, 2018122912, , BEST, 0, 126S, 1446E, 25, 1000, TD,
SH, 95, 2018122918, , BEST, 0, 128S, 1445E, 25, 1000, TD,