最后一个都不能成

处理过的版本也有30节

SSD分析T1.5

GFS继续不支持发展

和上报差不多

杭州湾出海

位置不错，就只等风切减弱，有强度暴发的充足条件

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240115 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A 240114Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC
WINDS, SHOWING LOWER (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE WEST AND HIGHER (15-20
KNOTS) TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION AND GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO IF IT WILL INTENSIFY, HAVE INTERACTION WITH 24W, OR CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

EC不支持发展

WP, 93, 2018082400, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1327E, 20, 997, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1001, 80, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 93, 2018082406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 1320E, 20, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 65, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,