(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.3N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231207Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND MOST SHOW SOME DEGREE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED AS TO THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.