汕头南澳近海

预报擦过闽浙东北行

格美再现

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI. A RECENT
ASCAT METOP-A PASS DEPICTS A CLOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AS FULLY EXPOSED WITH
SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KT), BUT
VERY LITTLE DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-
30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

三台又共悬了

这么近。好歹来粤东海边转转啊。多下点雨。都焊死了

概率图

又是这里的反向季风槽，很容易像6月那次

数值预报往东北走的原因是西南季风吗？

终于下了些雨了

GFS新报认为登陆浙江

92W INVEST 180822 0000 22.4N 119.0E WPAC 15 997

EC和GFS都不看好强度