93W INVEST 171018 1200 15.5N 146.8E WPAC 20 1007

入夜对流爆发，但整体好像被向东切

EC最新报认为其不能明显发展，后期将并入兰恩外围环流

WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN
RECURVING, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 182154
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (ENE OF GUAM)
B. 18/2100Z
C. 14.82N
D. 148.00E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. MET/PT N/A. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

93W INVEST 171019 0000 14.5N 148.8E WPAC 20 1009

TPPN10 PGTW 190030
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (ENE OF GUAM)
B. 19/0000Z
C. 14.09N
D. 148.88E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

JMA：LPA

TPPN10 PGTW 190304
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF GUAM)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 13.96N
D. 149.25E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

TPPN10 PGTW 190632
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF GUAM)
B. 19/0600Z
C. 13.51N
D. 150.03E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA

93W INVEST 171019 0600 13.5N 150.0E WPAC 20 1009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.