EC新报支持成旋

93W INVEST 171017 0600 14.4N 144.0E WPAC 15 1010

兰恩原地打转原来等他俩入口

WP, 93, 2017101712, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1442E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

93W INVEST 171017 1800 15.1N 144.9E WPAC 20 1005

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GUAM RADAR SHOWS CURVED RAIN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 171733Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TINIAN SHOW PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH TS 25W'S OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WARM SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS AS VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

93W INVEST 171018 0000 15.1N 145.6E WPAC 20 1005

前有兰恩上有冷涡。。

HWRF报出子弹台不开眼，镶嵌中心到底

93W INVEST 171018 0600 15.4N 145.1E WPAC 20 1006

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