https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/09/13/box-office-frozen-2-might-get-iced-by-star-wars-episode-ix/#1a5b96d26a24BOX一篇报道，认为星战9的改档会对冰雪2票房有很大影响
Box Office: 'Frozen 2' Might Get Iced By 'Star Wars Episode IX'
“But what about Frozen 2?” That was my first thought upon hearing that Walt Disney had movedStar Wars: Episode IX from May 24, 2019 to Dec. 20, 2019. It wasn’t a huge surprise since last two (soon to be three) Star Wars movies did obscenely well over the Christmas holiday and because the director change and script changes (partially due to Carrie Fisher’s passing late last year) may have justified a delay in production. But even if we argue that Christmas is better forStar Wars, especially the episode installments, this still puts Disney’s most valuable live-action franchise against its most valuable animated property. If history is any indication, Frozen 2 is going to take a hit because of its proximity to Star Wars.
2019 was always going to be obscenely crowded, and Disney's strategy that seemed to be in place (smother the other studios with mega-hits even if each individual Disney movie leaves money on the table due to cannibalization) a few months ago still applies. Swapping Star Wars 9 for Aladdinover Memorial Day still makes a potent 1-2 summer combo with Avengers: It Which Must Not Be Titled and Aladdin opening within weeks of each other. If there is a loss to be had with the second May Disney movie opening right after the MCU opus, better to ding Aladdin (which isn’t necessarily trying to spawn a bunch of sequels) than the J.J. Abrams space opera. Yet, Walt Disney may have too many franchises.
Now, for the record, if the goal is market share and squashing the competition by a sheer show of force, then you can never have too many successful big-scale IPs on your docket. But Disney is now at a point where they can’t delay one biggie without hurting another one or putting their whole release docket in peril. Absent Frozen 2’s Thanksgiving release, moving Star Wars 9 to Dec. 20, 2019 would have been a no-brainer. But now, assuming they keep both monster releases within a month of each other, we do have to wonder what effect Star Wars 9 is going to have on Frozen 2. This isn’t the first time Disney has had this “problem.” Heck, it’s almost becoming a pattern.
Back in late 2009, Walt Disney released The Princess and the Frog into theaters, not over Thanksgiving weekend, where it had a brief platform run, but in the middle of December. The reasoning was likely so that it wouldn’t conflict too much with Robert Zemeckis’ pricey A Christmas Carol, which was slotted as the holiday season kickoff movie. But the vast majority of the press and buzz around The Princess and the Frog occurred right during the Thanksgiving weekend when most folks couldn’t see it. By the time it went wide on Dec. 13, everyone was talking about Avatar and the media had moved on, and the surprisingly huge performance of Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel over Christmas weekend sealing its doom.
Neither film was that all successful. A Christmas Carol earned $325 million worldwide on a $200m budget and Princess and the Frog somewhat underperformed with $224m worldwide on a $105m budget. Sadly, the conventional wisdom around the old-school Disney toon was that it failed because of its hand-drawn origins and the gender-specific nature of its title. Without discounting old-school racism (oh boy, did I get some “I’m not a racist, but…” type comments in my blog posts during that season), I’ve long argued the film opened at the wrong time and would have done better as a Thanksgiving (or pre-Thanksgiving weekend) wide release. Disney seems to agree with me since they never made that mistake again. Tangled and Frozen both opened over Thanksgiving weekend in 2010 and 2013.
But then Walt Disney bought Lucasfilm and started releasing Star Wars movies over Christmas. Now the initial call to move The Force Awakens from Memorial Day weekend of 2015 to Dec. 18, 2015 was absolutely the right call, one I argued for and then championed. But, to quote an arch villain in a rival studio’s super important franchise, victory has its price. Overshadowed endless speculation, hype and pre/post-release commentary for Spectre, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part II, Creed and The Force Awakens, Pixar’s delayed and rejiggered The Good Dinosaur opened smaller than hoped ($55m over five days) and crashed after its debut (a $127m domestic total). So, did The Force Awakens protect Pixar from its first flop or did it help cause it? Maybe a little of both.
Walt Disney’s Moana was a hit last year but fell well short of Frozen. The well-received princess adventure earned $248 million domestic and $643m worldwide, a fine sum but one that nonetheless felt overshadowed by Marvel’s Doctor Strange, Lucasfilm’s Rogue One and (to a lesser extent) Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (all of which made more worldwide). As I’ve noted before, one of the factors in Frozen’s leggy run ($400m domestic from a $93m Wed-Sun debut) was the lack of kid-friendly competition from Thanksgiving weekend untilThe LEGO Movie in February of 2014. The absence of said vacuum is one reason why Frozen 2may end up short of Frozen. That’s okay, but as of yesterday, the biggest wound may be self-inflicted.
The success of Universal/Comcast Corp.’s Sing alongside the Star Wars movies and the MCU November releases means that we’re never going to have a year-end season like 2013, where the “big” movie (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug) is a hard PG-13 and the other stuff (Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, Saving Mr. Banks) are aimed at older kids or adults. We’ll get MCU movies, DC Films movies, 007 films, Star Wars sequels, Fantastic Beasts movies and Disney/Pixar animated offerings along with more kid-friendly stuff right at Christmas. You can argue what may or may not get lost in the shuffle, the irony is that in 2019 it’ll be (again) the Disney live-action giant that will prevent the Disney toon from monopolizing the kid marketplace.
None of this means Frozen 2 is doomed or that Disney cares more about Star Wars than the animated princess brand. The Mouse House has been so successful at building varied brands (Lucasfilm, MCU, the live-action fairy tale stuff, Pixar, DWA) that the biggest competition for Disney and/or the biggest impediment for maximized potential for each respective Walt Disney release may, in fact, be a different Walt Disney release opening just before or after. But there is a difference between Pirates 5 taking a hit because of Guardians 2 and Frozen potentially taking a hit due to Star Wars 9 (or vice versa). The end result is Disney’s biggest live-action IP and their crowning animated achievement essentially opening head-to-head when each would dominate absent each other.
If the goal is combined 2019 market share domination (Avengers, Aladdin, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2, Star Wars 9, etc.), then all of this is merely trivia. If history is any indication,Frozen 2 may have to settle for making most of the money instead of what otherwise would have been all the money. Maybe I’m 180-degrees wrong and Frozen 2 will hurt Star Wars 9, but either way precedent suggests that both films opening so close to each other will result in lower total earnings for at least one of them. And yeah, this is different from Avengers: Age of Ultron essentially giving cover to Tomorrowland's failure. This is a Disney top-tier blockbuster against a Disney top-tier blockbuster.
Frozen 2 versus Star Wars 9 is going to be a heck of an accidental battle. All Wonder Woman 2and Wicked can do is get the hell out of the way.
If you like what you're reading, follow @ScottMendelson on Twitter, and "like" The Ticket Booth on Facebook. Also, check out my archives for older work HERE.
191楼2017-09-17 17:29
191楼2017-09-17 17:29
