CHP6都只报了C3，GFS和HWRF是要搞大新闻啊

FY3B的VIRRX和MESRI1000M

TXXS21 KNES 040612
TCSSIO
A. 09S (ENAWO)
B. 04/0530Z
C. 13.4S
D. 56.4E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...dT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL
PT=2.5. MET=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. 04/0257Z SSMIS SHOWS BANDING TYPE EYE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
04/0257Z 13.3S 56.5E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ

TPXS10 PGTW 040612
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
B. 04/0600Z
C. 13.29S
D. 56.28E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HART

** WTIO31 FMEE 040621 ***
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20162017
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (ENAWO)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/03/2017 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 130 NO: 130
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 04/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/03/2017 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 06/03/2017 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 06/03/2017 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 07/03/2017 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2017 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 09/03/2017 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX=000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5-
SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0257Z ET GMI DE 0316Z,
L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE, ET LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE PRESENTE UNE BANDE
INCURVEE DE PLUS D'UNE DEMI-TOUR, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE AYANT
EGALEMENT GAGNE LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
D'APRES LES DONNA ES DU CIMMS, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
EST, A LEGERMENT BAISSEE DURANT LA NUIT, MAIS RESTE ENCORE MODERA A
(20KT A 03Z).
ENAWO A COMMENCE A DERIVER VERS LE SUD AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI PILOTAIT LA TRAJECTOIRE. CETTE SITUATION
DEVRAIT CONTINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. DES LA NUIT PROCHAINE,
LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST SUITE A LA POUSSEE
D'UNE DORSALE PRESENTE EN MOYENNE TROPO SUR LE SUD DE L'AFRIQUE ET
QUI S'ETEND PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, CE FLUX DIRECTEUR POURRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR, FAVORISANT
ALORS UNE TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE VERS LE SUD. AU SEIN DES DERNIERS
MODELES NUMERIQUES, LA TENDANCE A UN DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LEUR
PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE SE POURSUIT (GFS). UN ATTERRISSAGE DE ENAWO
SUR MADAGASCAR APPARAIT DONC PROBABLE. CEPENDANT, L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
ENCORE IMPORTANTE SUR LE LIEU ET LA DATE DU LANDFALL, AVEC DES
VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENTS TRES DIFFERENTES ENTRE IFS ET GFS. LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UN COMPROMIS DE CES DEUX SCENARIOS.
LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE TRES BONNE COTE OUEST ET S'AMELIORE AU
SUD, PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER ALORS QUE DANS LE MEME
TEMPS LA CONTRAINTE D'EST FAIBLIT EN COUR DE JOURNA E.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ALORS QUE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DEVIEND
PROGRESSIVEMENT PLUS FAIBLE, AVEC UN POTENTIEL DEMEURANT IMPORTANT,
ENAWO DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN CREUSEMENT PLUS RAPIDE. IL EST PREVU
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AU PLUS TARD LUNDI ET DEVRAIT
ETRE PROCHE DU STADE SUPERIEUR LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE.=

SH09: ENAWO (55kts)

FY3C正在通过马达加斯加上空，等一个小时后应该就有图了

BEGIN
JTWC_ATCFP2
tcwarning_sh092017.wrn
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201703040707
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 003
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.0S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.2S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.5S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 56.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

下调上望至110节

基本废了 估计大概TY下限

2017030406+48 -14.9 53.4 110 0 TY 34:135,160,180,120