不稳定

GFS预测最低908

WTIO30 FMEE 051237 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20162017
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)
2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 55.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2017/03/10 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

JTWC开始眼分析
TPXS10 PGTW 051430
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
B. 05/1430Z
C. 13.95S
D. 55.36E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HART

201703051800 -13.9 55.1 90
升格C2

meteosat7大概已经死了

FY3C VIRRX 1000M IR 201703052320 UTC

FY2E 圆盘

终于

近一个小时color扫描对比

TPXS10 PGTW 060253
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
B. 06/0230Z
C. 13.88S
D. 54.03E
E. THREE/MET8
F. T4.5/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A
4.5 WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2124Z 14.03S 54.57E AMS2
05/2205Z 14.02S 54.90E ATMS
05/2310Z 14.02S 54.62E SSMI
LEMBKE

最终还是没整好，像西太被干空气入侵的烂台一样卷来卷去。不过最新底层有好转，同时强雨带再次上卷，个人认为已经可以成为真正意义上的C2.
现在底层也不算结实，这波能不能步入正轨还需观察。按照预测，24小时之后核心就将受到陆地影响，能不能上MH完全看这波了。

突然就……