2000Z

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 950 HPA
AT 56N 172E BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 56N 172E TO 57N 174E 58N 176E.
WARM FRONT FROM 58N 176E TO 58N 176W 57N 167W.
COLD FRONT FROM 58N 176E TO 55N 180E 51N 179W 48N 180E 44N 176E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 44N 176E TO 43N 176E 42N 174E 38N 170E 36N 166E
34N 159E 33N 155E 33N 150E.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 60N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 64N 175E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 992 HPA AT 56N 154E
ALMOST STATIONARY.

OPC给了952hPa，明显给高了，1620Z的实测推估都大致能支持这个气压了

实测与预报对比
1900Z 浮标46070 实测971.4hPa 实测平均风速26~27m/s
ECMWF 预测此刻中心949hPa 预测巅峰947hPa 预测此刻测站973hPa 偏差+1.6hPa
GFS 预测此刻中心951hPa 预测巅峰947hPa 预测此刻测站973hPa 偏差+1.6hPa
ICON 预测此刻中心955hPa 预测巅峰950hPa 预测此刻测站975hPa 偏差+3.6hPa
HRRR 预测此刻中心953hPa 预测巅峰949hPa 预测此刻测站973hPa 偏差+1.6hPa
*以上数据均按照Windy
考虑到EC和GFS的预报与实况最接近，采用1:1计算，推测1900Z该系统中心最低气压为948~949hPa

2050Z

2130Z

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 56N171E 952 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 45N
TO 60N W OF 172W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 64N176E 970 MB. W AND NW OF A LINE FROM
56N179W TO 64N164W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 8.5 M.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED WELL N OF AREA WITH NEW LOW 61N167W
1004 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 65N167W 1001 MB. N OF 54N BETWEEN 155W AND
165W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 3 M.

按照JMA，该系统24小时降压高达48hPa；按照OPC，该系统24小时降压多达42hPa。无论按照哪种标准，该系统都是26~27风季北太平洋首个炸弹气旋，同时按照OPC也是本风季北太平洋首个非台风转化而来的达到飓风级别风力的温带气旋。

0000Z

巅峰过后没完全扫到最大风区的ASCAT