GFS 12Z

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
AT 53N 172E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NNE 30 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 172E TO 54N 176E 54N 180E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 172E TO 49N 176E 43N 173E 40N 170E 38N 165E 35N
162E 34N 157E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 157E TO 33N 153E 33N 150E 34N 145E 34N 141E
33N 139E 33N 138E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 57N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 61N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 992 HPA AT 56N 153E
ALMOST STATIONARY.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 53N171E 966 MB MOVING NE 25 KT. WITHIN 240 NM E AND 360 NM
SE QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 8.5 M. FROM 48N TO
57N W OF 172W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6.5 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N171E 952 MB. WITHIN 180 NM SE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 61N176E 958 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE
QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 M. ELSEWHERE W AND NW
OF A LINE FROM 55N178W TO 64N171W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9
M. ALSO W AND NW OF A LINE FROM 53N169W TO 60N164W WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED WELL N OF AREA WITH NEW LOW 61N167W
1004 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO
40 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.

1600Z，Shemya录得海压981.0hPa；1620Z，浮标46070录得过程最低海压969.7hPa。
结合测站位置及数值预报场推算，1620Z前后该气旋中心最低气压大约在953hPa左右，比预报更强。
（图中光标位置为测站的位置）

白令海周边 海平面气压1

白令海周边 海平面气压2


白令海周边 10分钟平均风速

白令海周边 小时内最大阵风

白令海周边 部分测站实测曲线

截至目前46070浮标的实测曲线图，虽然气压最低点已经过了，但风速还有上升趋势

1750Z前后46070浮标曾录得26m/s左右的平均风速，与GFS预报同一时刻该位置的风速几乎一样，可以认为现在该系统应该很大概率有C1水平的风速