2

23P TWENTYTHRE 260226 1800 18.2S 167.9E SHEM 35 996

注:南太上一个C4还是Kevin

日出

开启新征程

丸辣是理可开的帖子

WTPS11 NFFN 261800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A02 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 261956 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 167.8E
AT 261800 UTC. POSITION POOR FAIR ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS.
WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE OF TD09F, IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TO SOUTHWEST, EXPECT NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR,
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY.
SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN FAVOURABLE AREA FOR TC DEVELOPMENT,
THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH [AROUND 20S] COULD IMPACT THE
SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT QUICKLY.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.55 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 18.8S 167.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 19.7S 169.0E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 20.7S 170.9E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 22.5S 173.8E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 270200UTC.

原本还以为能看到南太全季0命名呢

南太给我的感觉就是：它明明可以直接空台一整年，却还是敷衍地给我了一个旋