18P，65kt都到不了，这个脱水估计也是问题，南太今年要是全水了怎么办，它拿什么交代？

hwrf能不能施法

全都是错觉，难太肯定是为了下个风季的巩固而这样的！

为什么讨论贴里突然有那么多已经过巅峰的言论不是正常被风切影响吗

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 270735 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 168.5E AT
270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TOWARDS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.6 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=3.0 AND PT AGREE WITH MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 20.1S 169.8E MOV AT KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 21.1S 171.9E MOV AT KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 22.9S 175.0E MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 25.8S 179.1E MOV AT KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271400UTC.

理可（楼主版）日常切崩TC

这回80不是ex了

Urmil：风切来了，那我干什么？
风切：你替我挽鞋
Urmil：啥？
风切：给我擦皮鞋

Urmil：求求了放过我吧
风切：我偏不

好歹也是个发达国家的海外领地，怎么雷达跟滚木似的

EC 00Z维持预报96x，即使考虑ec对高纬系统高估也可以脱水了