按照未来预报，中美洲会有一CAG发展，但是目前依旧不支持加海猛货，只有零星的猛货线是无法表明对猛货有反应

加海大饼的非洲波飘了几天后已经出海，目前看环境至少相比J和L都要好不少

请静心等待5h

最近卫星崩坏数值大战没啥可看的，不如来展望一下风王强度
1 .Ragasa（150-155）
2.155-160
3.160-165
4.165-170
5.170+

临门一脚，可惜了，冷空气一掌拍死

AI和gfs都报出风神过后西太还会继续出东西

A branch of the Near Equatorial Trench (NET) persists east of 65°E between 3°S and 6°S. Convective activity is moderate in the convergences at the southern and northern edges of the NET.
At the beginnig of this week, a Kelvin wave will propagate ahead of the wet MJO approaching from the west and should cross an equatorial Rossby wave. There is also the contribution of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave, which reinforces the signal on several occasions. In this context, one or two low-pressure circulations could emerge from the NET between the centre and east of the basin over the next 5 days.
As the wave context becomes favourable, environmental conditions are improving in the east and centre of the basin. On Friday, to the east of Diego-Garcia, low-level convergence could improve in a very humid troposphere. With the circulation still wide and hampered by easterly wind shear, the development of a tropical system is likely to take some time. As far as the models are concerned, the deterministic ones confirm this slow scenario fairly well, but the ensemblists (EPS and GEFS) see several of their members developing into moderate tropical storms fairly quickly.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes very weak from Friday 17th October near Diego-Garcia and becomes weak from saturday 18th October.
10-day outlook :
Taking into account what has been described above, the risk of cyclogenesis will increase the following week in the center of the basin.