东太什么时候出个C5啊

A branch of the Near Equatorial Trench (NET) persists east of 72°E between 3°S and 9°S. Convective activity is weak to moderate in the convergences at the southern and northern edges of the NET.
At the start of the week, a Kelvin wave will propagate ahead of the wet MJO approaching from the west and should cross an equatorial Rossby wave. There is also the contribution of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave, which reinforces the signal on several occasions. In this context, one or two low-pressure circulations could emerge from the NET between the centre and east of the basin.
As the wave context becomes more favourable, environmental conditions are improving in the east and centre of the basin. On Friday to the east of Diego-Garcia, low-level convergence could improve in a very humid troposphere. Only the easterly wind shear could still hinder the development of a tropical system. In terms of models, the determinists are not digging very far. But many members of the ensemble models (EPS and GEFS) are digging up to the moderate tropical storm stage.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes very weak from Friday 17 October near Diego-Garcia
10-day outlook:
Taking into account what has been described above, the risk of cyclogenesis will increase over the coming weekend and the following week between the center and the east of the basin.

20年是怎么把天鹅憋出来的

马绍尔群岛附近云团挺活跃的，西太的远洋大货啥时候能出来啊，南海冷水坑都挖遍了

长期趋势看远洋低纬会在风神之后迎来高度活跃期

gfs12z预报，10.27生成25号台风海鸥，或为下一波台风活跃期的领头台