TXPZ28 KNES 141217
TCSENP
A. 13E (MARIO)
B. 14/1200Z
C. 18.6N
D. 109.7W
E. FIVE/GOES-W
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED ON
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE

EP, 13, 2025091412, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1103W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 90, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIO, M,

EP, 13, 2025091412, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1100W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIO, M,

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

来自NHC本报Forecast Discussion
There was some question as to if this system was fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the same entity.

Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both
coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now
just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data
from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center
had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the
improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since
that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a
tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was
fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is
interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south.
However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior
circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and
the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the
same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35
kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt,
a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure
observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just
to the northwest of the tropical storm.