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Information provided by JTWC
Wind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Danas (Philippine name Bising, Japanese Typhoon Number 4) is located 46 km north-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan, and has tracked north-northeastward at 35 km/h (19 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).
Danas is forecast to continue tracking north-northeastward, along the northwestern edge of the near-equatorial ridge over the next 24 hours.
In around 24 hours, ridging will extend over to the north of the vortex, which will turn the system sharply westward towards mainland China. A second landfall is forecast to occur in around 30 to 36 hours.
A westward to southwestward track will then continue through the remainder of the forecast period as the remnant vortex tracks further inland.
Regarding intensity, Danas is forecast to maintain intensity or slightly weaken further over the next 24 hours as it tries to recuperate after its inital landfall within Taiwan.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginal for any chances of reintensification though. Outflow is forecast to almost entirely cease and northeasterly shear will begin increasing.
After the second landfall, Danas will rapidly deteriorate with dissipation in 3 days. Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 36 hours with a 165 km cross-track spread at 36 hours.
After 36 hours, both cross-track and along-track spread increase as the weakened vortex tracks over land. The main outlier is GFS, which has the system take a much sharper south-southwestward turn, nearly back into the Taiwan Strait, after 36 hours.
The JTWC track forecast follows more closely to the main grouping of guidance with overall medium confidence. Intensity guidance mostly agrees on weakening throughout the forecast period, with the exception of COAMPS-TC (GFS based), which reintensifies the system in 12 to 36 hours.
Wind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Danas (Philippine name Bising, Japanese Typhoon Number 4) is located 46 km north-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan, and has tracked north-northeastward at 35 km/h (19 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 5.5 meters (18 feet).
Danas is forecast to continue tracking north-northeastward, along the northwestern edge of the near-equatorial ridge over the next 24 hours.
In around 24 hours, ridging will extend over to the north of the vortex, which will turn the system sharply westward towards mainland China. A second landfall is forecast to occur in around 30 to 36 hours.
A westward to southwestward track will then continue through the remainder of the forecast period as the remnant vortex tracks further inland.
Regarding intensity, Danas is forecast to maintain intensity or slightly weaken further over the next 24 hours as it tries to recuperate after its inital landfall within Taiwan.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginal for any chances of reintensification though. Outflow is forecast to almost entirely cease and northeasterly shear will begin increasing.
After the second landfall, Danas will rapidly deteriorate with dissipation in 3 days. Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 36 hours with a 165 km cross-track spread at 36 hours.
After 36 hours, both cross-track and along-track spread increase as the weakened vortex tracks over land. The main outlier is GFS, which has the system take a much sharper south-southwestward turn, nearly back into the Taiwan Strait, after 36 hours.
The JTWC track forecast follows more closely to the main grouping of guidance with overall medium confidence. Intensity guidance mostly agrees on weakening throughout the forecast period, with the exception of COAMPS-TC (GFS based), which reintensifies the system in 12 to 36 hours.
The JTWC intensity forecast is also placed with medium confidence, in line with the multi-model consensus.
Warning Number 13. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Warning Number 13. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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