各位大佬们，13号早从湛江到东莞有影响吗

感觉gfs认为现在中心会被红色东南窝度导致向东南调整，不过可能性并不大，当然也要看一下。

13海口的飞机还能飞吗

10号到14号三亚是不是注定会影响

EC萌货怼珠江口

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2N 123.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 090152Z
ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEALS 10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF
15-20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK FURTHER INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

JTWC今天06z继续维持LOW

粤东雨下爆

受到南高影响有一些东风风切，反演出对流层中高层有一定干入侵，VIS上深对流向西切离。后期西风槽下探、南高单体进入调整期，数值报出高空环境略有改善

JTWC 06Z分析报文翻译
对流区（低压扰动 92W）先前位于北纬15.2度、东经123.3度附近，现位于北纬16.4度、东经117.3度附近，大约在香港东南偏南方向394海里处。动画多光谱卫星图像（MSI）显示一个范围广阔、部分裸露的低层环流中心，对流在其系统西部边缘爆发。
090152Z (世界时09日01:52) 的Metop-B卫星ASCAT散射计25公里分辨率图像显示有10节的风从北部和东部卷入环流中心。
环境分析表明环境条件中度有利：高空存在中等的赤道向流出通道，海面温度温暖（30摄氏度），以及来自东北方向的低至中等强度垂直风切变（VWS），约为15-20节。
全球确定性模式及其集合预报目前对于该系统未来48小时向西进入南海的路径预报一致性良好，预报其将随着系统持续整合而稳步增强。
最大持续地面风速估计为10至15节。
最低海平面气压估计接近1002毫巴（百帕）。
未来24小时内发展形成热带气旋的可能性仍然较低。

EC新报登陆地跟GFS差不多

这个虽然强度一般，但是EC和GFS都预报出可能有机会从华东出海，影响范围还是可以的