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乌克兰一直在争取北约吗?

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《走向深渊》
节选自第七章:乌克兰人眼里的北约
作者:弗拉基米尔·伊格申
January 2023
Did Russia invade Ukraine to prevent further NATO encroachment on its western marches? Or was such agita merely a pretext? For those who take Vladimir Putin’s ‘legitimate security concerns’ at face value, NATO is itself culpable for the war, by holding out the promise of Ukrainian membership while engaging in increasingly intensive military coordination with Kiev. By contrast, Atlanticist consensus rejects the issue altogether, on the grounds that every state has the right to determine its own foreign policy, not least accession to a purely ‘defensive’ alliance. Concerns voiced by two generations of Soviet and Russian leaders can thus be dismissed as a ploy, contrived to dissemble deep-seated imperialistic designs.
Whatever role NATO expansion played in bringing about war, Ukrainians’ attitudes counted for little. The grim irony is not only that NATO was far from extending formal membership to Ukraine, but that there was not even evidence of a stable pro-NATO majority in the country. In a typically colonial style, commentators on all sides tended to homogenize Ukrainians, without regard for political diversity in a nation of forty million people. Contrary to the Kremlin’s inclination to resolve Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation within a small circle of Great Powers, Ukrainian officials have insisted on the principle ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine’. However, the problem is not only deciding ‘without Ukraine’, but also deciding ‘for’ a very diverse population as if all held identical opinions on the critical issues in question.


IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端1楼2025-05-23 17:44回复
    Beyond the global rivalry between the US and Russia, on the one hand, and regional Russo-Ukrainian relations, on the other, the conflict in Ukraine has always also been about internal political and cultural heterogeneity, which necessarily has a class dimension. NATO occupies a peculiar place in this history. For a middle-class civil society, joining the alliance is a necessary step towards ‘Western integration’, a catchphrase for an ersatz-modernization drive that entails adjustment not only to the demands of capitalist development but to the ‘civilized world’ itself. Other Ukrainians, less well positioned to benefit from this prospective Gleichschaltung, have been progressively stigmatized, silenced and repressed. The failure to achieve a pluralistic nation-building project for Ukraine has been disastrous, with consequences reaching far beyond its borders.


    IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端3楼2025-05-23 17:46
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      2026-02-04 23:56:47
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      Did Ukrainians want to join NATO?
      Non-alignment, ruling out entry into any military pact, was inscribed in the foundational documents of the state of Ukraine, the Declaration of Sovereignty (adopted 16 July 1990) and the Constitution (28 June 1996), following independence. And up until the tumultuous events of 2014, only a minority of Ukrainians favoured NATO membership. Surveys at the time show that support extended to no more than 20–30 per cent of the population, irrespective of how the issue was framed. By comparison, support for joining a supranational Union State alongside Russia and Belarus consistently hovered around 50–60 per cent (exceeding support for membership of the EU, although some Ukrainians did not see this as an either–or choice).1


      IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端4楼2025-05-23 17:47
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        Ukraine’s cooperation with NATO began almost immediately after independence and deepened over time – although not without hesitation as to the end goal of acquiring membership, a project sometimes included and sometimes excluded from official national security statements. Oscillation was a leitmotif of the so-called ‘multi-vector’ strategy of balancing between Russia and the West. Rivals in Russia posed a threat to the ruling class of independent Ukraine, as tycoons in both countries vied to despoil what remained of Soviet-era infrastructure and state-owned enterprises.


        IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端6楼2025-05-23 17:48
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          Some evidence did indicate growing support for NATO membership in the wake of the election of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.19 To start with, the new president – a Euro-Atlantic partisan, inaccurately besmirched as ‘pro-Russian’ by Ukrainian nationalists and international ‘friends of Ukraine’20 – somewhat ‘de-toxified’ the issue among eastern Ukrainian voters, and even more importantly, the Russian military build-up from the spring of 2021 raised alarm. All the same, it is doubtful whether a stable majority – as distinct from fleeting, conjunctural upticks in polling – existed even in the run-up to the invasion. As late as December 2021, polls suggested that non-alignment commanded a plurality of around 45 per cent.21 NATO supporters probably would have prevailed in a referendum; however, even setting aside the limits of a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ response in dictating national security strategy, a vote under these conditions would not have included the millions of Ukrainian citizens in the Donbass and Crimea. If their opinions are taken into account (Ukraine has never formally abandoned the ambition to bring them back), the notion of a stable pro-NATO majority in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion is flawed.


          IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端9楼2025-05-23 17:51
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            本书作者是乌克兰左翼,目前在柏林自由大学。本书以一个左翼的视角解读了俄乌战争爆发的原因,如果不将其
            其和苏联的历史结合起来,那么就难以真正的了解俄乌战争。


            IP属地:黑龙江来自Android客户端12楼2025-05-23 17:55
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