汇率变动主要因素，各国央行的货币政策（主导），利率水平，市场消息面对投资者预期的影响。
特朗普上台后，汇率市场的走势就主要围绕关税战，和特朗普的各种政策而波动。
相对的，美联储却是一个按兵不动的姿态。目前美国的经济数据虽然相对比较疲软，但是还远没到衰退的程度，美联储也是一直在关注关税对经济的影响程度，所以一直维持利率不变的政策。市场对美国降息的预期也降到了2次以下。相对美元的高利率环境还会延续一段时间，对于全球投资者美元资产还是非常好的投资对象。
人民银行年初就已经表态，年内会适时的降准降息。政策面来看，央行是有意识的控制人民币适当贬值的。目的：提振出口，对抗关税的影响。
日本方面，现在收到输入性通胀的影响比较厉害，国内物价上涨的比较厉害，日本央行会适当的加息日元利率上升，增加持有日元的收益率，使日元升值，对抗输入性通胀。但是日元总体处于低利率水平，升值空间有限，日元的波动主要受外部环境，市场避险情绪的影响。
第三页
贸易战2.0版本的时间线
1月20日特朗普上台后，就开始张罗着要开始实施新的关税政策（贸易战）
特朗普团队有一个经济学家，纳瓦罗，（贸易和工业政策主任）他主张，来自中国，墨西哥等国家的廉价商品造成的贸易赤字，损害了美国经济。全球化是美国人失去了工作。
之后，从2月4日开始，对各国征税。
3月3日 以中国企业向美国走私芬太尼，等精神类药物为借口，对华加征20%关税。
4月2日起，对全球的全面贸易战开始。之后中美互加关税，4月10日为止，美国对华关税就加到了145%。中国对美关税125%。暂时告一段落。
接下来半个多月的时间，特朗普把炮口转向了美联储，要求美联储马上降息，否则就要鲍威尔下台。差不多到4月底不了了之。
一直到5月12日，中美双方在日内瓦举行了第一次会谈，达成初步协议，并同意关税战暂停90天。
5月29日，美国贸易法院，宣布特朗普的关税政策违法，必须全面暂停。之后特朗普团队马上就上诉反对。
5月30日，上诉法院暂时搁置裁决，进行调查。
6月5日，和特朗普进行了电话会议，主要是就关税，贸易战问题进行通话，表达我方立场。要求排除各种干扰和破坏，互相尊重，争取双赢的结果。
对于这次好不容易促成的电话会议，特朗普也是表现的非常积极。希望可以达成一个双方满意的协议。两国元首同意双方团队尽快举行新一轮的贸易会谈。
最后，还想特朗普发出了再次访华的邀请。特朗普的第二次访华也提上日程。
通话之后，贸易战的紧张局面，得到了一定的缓和。对美元和人民币都是利好消息。
第六页
贸易战的目的
1.增加财政收入，特朗普施政纲领中有一块减税法案，削减的税收需要从其他地方补回来，一个是关税，另一个是削减开支，（马斯克裁员）
2.缓解贸易逆差，主要是商品贸易，美国的服务贸易一直是顺差。
3.促使制造业回流。
4.作为国际谈判的筹码。
达到了一定的效果
贸易战开启以后，市场的避险情绪升温，美国市场作为漩涡的中心，投资者都减持了美元资产，转投到传统的避险资产，日元，瑞士法郎，黄金价格上升，美元指数一直下行，低于100.
除了贸易战意外，目前让特朗普最头疼的问题就是，6月内美债到期续期的问题，6.5万亿低利率的美债到期。新发国债的平均利率在3.5%以上。对美国政府的财政造成巨大压力。
另外，接下来美国国债的认购情况也会影响美元的走势。

The U.S. dollar stabilised on Thursday after retreating from a two-week high versus major peers, as markets took Trump 's latest tariff salvos in stride.The dollar had been knocked back by a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields as a 10-year note auction on Wednesday garnered strong demand, tempering worries about the "Sell America" narrative that had seen Treasuries。Overall, investors were hungry for riskier assets with the most damaging tariff scenarios looking increasingly unlikely, Sentiment also drew support from minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with most policymakers of the opinion that interest rate cuts will be appropriate later this year.The dollar index was a fraction higher at 97.533, finding a floor following a 0.2% decline on Wednesday,The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1712。The USDJPY held steady at 146.26.The USDCNY fell 0.07% to 7.1765.

经常账户收支，2024年顺差4240亿美元，历史第二高，历史最高是2022年4433亿美元，今年比去年增长了61%。占GDP比重为2.2%.总体出口的结构货物的结构也很大的变化，2024年出口商品中60%是机电类产品，进出口份额，国内民营企业占总量的56%，外商29%，15%国有企业。民营企业还是我国外贸的主力军。服务贸易，我国是长期的逆差，其中支出最大的项目，居民跨境旅游和留学支出。 初次收入，其中最主要的是投资收益，我国常年是负数，逆差状态，原因就是大量的外商投资的企业，每年都会把大量的利润通过分红的形式汇往国外，我国在境外的投资相对较少，投资收益较少。总结，我国经常项目的收支，收入主要还是靠货物贸易的贡献，但是从过国家统计局的数据看，服务贸易的收入和初次贸易，投资收益的金额在慢慢扩大。

The US dollar index rose to 98.61 on Wednesday but investor concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence continued to linger, potentially limiting the U.S. currency's rise.
The euro/USD was down about 0.4% at 1.1591, giving back some of the gains spurred by Trump's announcement on Monday that he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans.
Cook's lawyer later said she would file a lawsuit to prevent her ouster, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight.
While the dollar appears to have shaken off immediate worries over Fed independence, Trump's actions have contributed to the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield bottomed at 3.6540% on Wednesday, its lowest since May 1, as traders ramped up bets of imminent Fed cuts.
Yields on the longer end of the curve have meanwhile risen on concerns that premature easing of monetary conditions could lead to a resurgence in inflation.The 30-year yield was last a touch higher at 4.9223%.
Money markets are currently pricing in a 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Among other currencies, the USD/JPY rose about 0.5% to148.02. USD/CNY rose about 0.1% to7.1592.

The dollar index rose to 98.61 on Wednesday but investor concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence continued to linger, potentially limiting the USD rise.
The euro/USD was down about 0.4% at 1.1591, giving back some of the gains spurred by Trump's announcement on Monday that he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Cook's lawyer later said she would file a lawsuit to prevent her ouster, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight.
While the dollar appears to have shaken off immediate worries over Fed independence, Trump's actions have contributed to the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield bottomed at 3.6540% on Wednesday, its lowest since May 1, as traders ramped up bets of imminent Fed cuts.
Money markets are currently pricing in a 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Among other currencies, the USD/JPY rose about 0.5% to148.02. USD/CNY rose about 0.1% to7.1592.