STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 35N 145E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 35 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 35N 145E TO 34N 148E 33N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 35N 145E TO 32N 143E 30N 140E 27N 136E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 18 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40N 155E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 65
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 45N 166E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA 40N155E 973 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW 42N160E 956 MB. WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 NM
S QUADRANTS WINDS 70 TO 95 KT. SEAS 18 TO 34 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 45N165E 940 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 70 TO 100 KT. SEAS 25 TO 45 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM
E...300 NM S...180 NM W...AND 180 NM N QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN
180 NM E OF A LINE FROM 44N171E TO 37N168E WINDS 50 TO 70 KT.
SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. ALSO W OF A LINE FROM 30N166E TO 40N179E TO
46N177E TO 48N174E WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
OTHERWISE FROM 30N TO 50N W OF 178W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO
18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N176E 939 MB. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM
S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 60 TO 70 KT. SEAS 30 TO 50 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N...AND 540 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS...AND
FROM 37N TO 52N BETWEEN 164W AND 173W WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20
TO 40 FT...EXCEPT E OF 173W SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ALSO NW OF A LINE
FROM 30N174E TO 30N171W TO 36N160W TO 55N160W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 11 TO 30 FT...HIGHEST S OF LOW CENTER.

GFS提高上望至932hPa

爆发前奏

EC上望持续100KT/阵风125KT/935hPa

各数值模式的阵风预报

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 37N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 40 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 150E TO 37N 153E 37N 155E 36N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 150E TO 34N 149E 31N 147E 28N 144E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 42N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 65
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 47N 171E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 152E 45N 160E
52N 170E 53N 180E 47N 180E 40N 162E 37N 152E 40N 152E.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 40N157E 974 MB. WITHIN 420
NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N162E 960 MB. WITHIN 360 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 50 TI 75 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N171E 932 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 70 TO 100 KT. SEAS 30 TO 52 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N
AND 540 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 45 TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 TO 42
FT...EXCEPT IN N SEMICIRCLE 16 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 660 NM
NE...1380 NM SE AND 1200 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
16 TO 32 FT...EXCEPT 8 TO 18 FT IN NE QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 52N175E 942 MB. WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 50 TO 70 KT. SEAS 30 TO 45 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM
NW...420 NM NE...840 NM SE AND 540 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50
KT. SEAS 17 TO 34 FT. ALSO WITHIN 840 NM NE..1740 NM SE AND 960
NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.

GFS上望90KT/933hPa，这个风速上望对于GFS报的温气来说非常罕见了

EC新报持续风100KT/阵风130KT/最低935hPa，风速略调强

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 40N 157E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NE 40 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 157E TO 39N 160E 35N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 157E TO 38N 157E 32N 153E 28N 147E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 6 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 45N 167E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 65
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 50N 174E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
MILES RADIUS.
——————————
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 152E 46N 160E
52N 170E 54N 180E 48N 180E 44N 170E 40N 160E 37N 152E 40N 152E.

10Z前后路过的ASCAT-C扫到一定范围的60kt区域，此时可能已经具有相当于入门C1的强度

比ASCAT-C稍晚半个多小时的ASCAT-B路过时候，已经有65kt旗子出现