TPPN12 PGTW 161511
A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 14.00N
D. 124.26E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T6.0/7.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF,
TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

菲东二巅强度还能回到130吗

置换但是不体现在高层似乎是不可能的，要么速度比较快，这个大概是最接近“融合置换”概念的情况。至于高层一直没有反应，大概原因是置换一直没有开始，而什么内眼战胜外眼，反而吸收外眼，融合外眼完成置换的情况，似乎是只存在于想象中的。总之，置换这种大工程不可能在高层轻描淡写就过去。不成熟想法，探讨一下。

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 161500
CCAA 16150 99398 11165
MAN-YI 24140 11242 11434 270// 92909
NNNN

WTPH20 RPMM 161200
SECURITE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 09
ISSUED AT 1200UTC, 16 NOVEMBER 2024 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
SUPER TYPHOON MAN-YI (2424) 920HPA
AT 1200UTC, PSTN 13.9N 124.6E MOV WNW 15KT
MXWD 105KT NEAR CTR
64KT 40NM NE 40NM SE 40NM SW 40NM NW QUAD
48KT 60NM NE 60NM SE 60NM SW 60NM NW QUAD
34KT 110NM NE 110NM SE 110NM SW 110NM NW QUAD
12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 170000UTC
PSTN 14.9N 122.8E, PRES 920HPA, MWXD 195KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 171200UTC
PSTN 16.4N 120.4E, PRES 970HPA, MWXD 70KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 180000UTC
PSTN 17.9N 118.1E, PRES 985HPA, MWXD 65KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 181200UTC
PSTN 18.6N 116.1E, PRES 980HPA, MWXD 55KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 190000UTC
PSTN 18.5N 114.0E, PRES 994HPA, MWXD 45KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 191200UTC
PSTN 17.9N 112.4E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 201200UTC
PSTN 17.5N 111.1E, PRES 1008HPA, LOW
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 13.9N 124.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 161800UTC
WEATHER MANILA=

看看完全出海后的调整如何

12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 170000UTC
PSTN 14.9N 122.8E, PRES 920HPA, MWXD 195KT
PAGASA预测12小时后195/920

玛娃与万宜对比

虽然融合置换是指望不上了，但个人认为还没到盖棺定论的时候，毕竟蛮夷在菲东疯狂擦边，完全可以借助地形磨烂外眼，直接撤回置换。现在开始请神摩氏换眼

可能还有点看头，到时候蹲一下二登地的风毁

上一张微波可看出外眼比较大，且内眼半天死不掉，高层出现这副样子不是没原因的