寿命只有8d，时日不多了，速速加强！

03z

adt又开始高潮了

kma预测

WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (BOLAVEN)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.5N 153.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 549 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED
CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VORTICAL HOT
TOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -83 C CORRESPONDING TO APPROXIMATELY 53,000 FEET.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 19N
158E, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IMPINGING ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 072342Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THIS ASCAT-C IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
OF 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADT AND AIDT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
REMAIN UNREALISTICALLY HIGH BUT THE 080100Z DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 34
KNOTS AND THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE ALSO BOLSTER THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONFIDENCE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 072330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDE

CONFIDENCE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 072330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH TS 15W IS CONSOLIDATING SLOWLY NOW,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36,
THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING WITH A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL TUTT PATTERN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, WHICH WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AFTER TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, WARM, DEEP WATER
(HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL
SUPPORT RI. CONSEQUENTLY, TS 15W SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AND OVER THE GUAM REGION WITH PEAK INTENSITY
VALUES INCREASING FROM 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48 TO 110 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
RECURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR, WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE TIMELY ASCAT-C PASS, THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
TRACKING THE CENTER DIRECTLY OVER GUAM, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH A 93 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 48, WITH THE MAJORITY OF TRACKERS NORTH OF GUAM. THE 071800Z GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THE BULK OF THEIR SOLUTIONS NORTH OF
GUAM, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTI

INITIAL
POSITION. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM AND GFS
VERSIONS) INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48.
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED REFLECTING
THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO EVOLVE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE 071200Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY DATA ALSO PROVIDES
EXCELLENT SUPPORT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36 WITH
PROBABILITIES JUMPING AS HIGH AS 85 PERCENT FROM TAU 60 TO TAU 84.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

台風第15号(ボラヴェン)
2023年10月08日13時05分発表
08日12時の実況
種別 台風
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 トラック諸島近海
中心位置 北緯9度50分 (9.8度)
東経152度00分 (152.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 220 km (120 NM)
09日12時の予報
種別 台風
強さ -
存在地域 トラック諸島近海
予報円の中心 北緯11度00分 (11.0度)
東経150度05分 (150.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 990 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速 40 m/s (80 kt)
予報円の半径 120 km (65 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 175 km (95 NM)
10日09時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯12度55分 (12.9度)
東経147度05分 (147.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧 965 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40 m/s (75 kt)
最大瞬間風速 55 m/s (105 kt)
予報円の半径 210 km (115 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 320 km (175 NM)
11日09時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯16度30分 (16.5度)
東経144度00分 (144.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧 950 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
最大瞬間風速 60 m/s (120 kt)
予報円の半径 300 km (160 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 440 km (240 NM)
12日09時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯19度30分 (19.5度)
東経142度10分 (142.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧 940 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45 m/s (90 kt)
最大瞬間風速 65 m/s (130 kt)
予報円の半径 370 km (200 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 540 km (290 NM)
13日09時の予報
種別 台風
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 小笠原近海
予報円の中心 北緯22度05分 (22.1度)
東経143度00分 (143.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 935 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 50 m/s (95 kt)
最大瞬間風速 70 m/s (135 kt)
予報円の半径 460 km (250 NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 650 km (340 NM)

南侧西风源源不断提供水汽，只是需要强大的核心来乘接
不管怎么说，还是气势磅礴

分出去的涡度有望成三巴杰拉华三台共舞

2022Noru，but vcdg＋wmg plz

...TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...