海口风超级大的，请问老哥们，接下来这个会可能登陆海南吗？

大概多久可以命名

96W INVEST 201018 0000 9.5N 135.7E WPAC 20 1007

福建应该不会影响吧，等下又来个应急响应

17号台风的前身热带扰动96W还没有升级为TD，应该很快就会升级TD，之后将在20日进入南海前命名。我们模式预测未来2-3天这个气旋在菲律宾以东洋面上移速较快同时强度增加缓慢，现在中心还在136E，60小时后即20日晚上就登陆菲律宾北部吕宋岛。
这个台风进入南海后就放慢移速，从21日起将花四天的时间在南海北部沿18N缓慢西行，同时强度将很快增加到13级以上风速。

应该不会影响海口吧

MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171959Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS MARGINAL CONVECTIVE BANDING. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

请06象神

大幅调弱 又奶死一个

巅峰985