THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM EAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEAR FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 160201Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ REVEALS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROADER, WEAK CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF 94W WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 94W IS CURRENLTY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION, BEFORE CONTINUING WEST, MOVING OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 150700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TPPN11 PGTW 160614 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF PHILIPPINES) B. 15/0540Z C. 16.50N D. 109.97E E. FIVE/HMWRI8 F. N/A G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE MARTIN
TXPQ27 KNES 160306 TCSWNP A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W) B. 16/0230Z C. 16.4N D. 111.3E E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8 F. T1.0/1.5 G. IR/EIR/VIS H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR-CUT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...CLARK
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM EAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEAR FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 160201Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ REVEALS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROADER, WEAK CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF 94W WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 94W IS CURRENLTY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION, BEFORE CONTINUING WEST, MOVING OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 160700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
TPPN11 PGTW 161238 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (OVER VIETNAM) B. 16/1200Z C. 15.99N D. 107.83E E. FIVE/HMWRI8 F. N/A G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE MARTIN