1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development and, if this recent development trend continues, a
tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward
on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.