对比最近几报有西调的趋势，浙沪需要重视，在黑潮里转四天可能会出来一个怪物

ec集合报继续西调 增大登陆华东江浙沪一带的概率 可能是因为日本南侧反应变强烈有关

形态还可以，EC的激情不减有几条直插我家

来上海么

假设登陆浙江，这货会何时登陆，我29号温州的行程会不会受影响

这三张图可以看出未来台风路径持续西调，意味着副高可能没有预期这么弱，可能是个典型的倒插门台风

涡度泛红

GFS 18z，东北地区可以关注一下了

流出有点杂乱

TCFA


WTPN21 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 122.6E TO 22.7N 122.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.5N 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202023Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90W TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS (15-20KT), AND WARM SST (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.
//
NNNN