THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031531Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SLOWLY MIGRATING OVER THE CENTER, THOUGH STILL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC, STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARC, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSETTING THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW. WHILE
THERE ARE CURRENTLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SURGE
FLOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LLC WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 031200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
GEM大胜利
白鹿
