WP, 02, 2019022300, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1437E, 105, 953, TY, 34, NEQ, 170, 135, 120, 140, 1006, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, WUTIP, D,
WP, 02, 2019022300, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1437E, 105, 953, TY, 50, NEQ, 95, 75, 60, 75, 1006, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, WUTIP, D,
WP, 02, 2019022300, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1437E, 105, 953, TY, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1006, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, WUTIP, D,

台 风 预 报
预报：董林 签发：高拴柱 2019 年 02 月 23 日 10 时
“蝴蝶”将继续加强
一、“蝴蝶”位于关岛南偏西洋面
今年第2号台风“蝴蝶”（强台风级）的中心今天（2月23日）上午8点钟位于美国关岛南偏西方大约325公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬10.7度、东经143.7度，中心附近最大风力有15级（48米/秒），中心最低气压为945百帕，七级风圈半径260-350公里，十级风圈半径120公里，十二级风圈半径60公里。
二、“蝴蝶”未来五天对我国海区无影响
预计，“蝴蝶”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度继续加强，最强可达超强台风级（16级，52-55m/s）。未来五天“蝴蝶”对我国海区无影响。

风切减弱

02W: WUTIP (105kt 953mb)

随着23 00z这一报105，Wutip的ACE已经超过Higos，刷新了卫星年代西太二月ACE的记录。
Wutip当前ACE：8.965
现在蝴蝶仍有充足的力量将记录继续刷新，它还能走多远呢，我们期待。

破茧成蝶

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1902 WUTIP (1902)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY WUTIP IS LOCATED AT 10.6N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

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KMA

电脑壁纸换成蝴蝶的云图

霸气

轮廓明显