TPXS11 PGTW 131205
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA)
B. 13/1145Z
C. 25.84S
D. 78.53E
E. SIX/MET8
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.0. MET/PT 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS

Wind: 45kt
Scale: Moderate Tropical Storm
Pressure: 990hPa

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报：王皘 签发：许映龙 2019 年 02 月 13 日 18 时
“格莱娜”将向东偏南方向移动
南印度洋强热带风暴“格莱娜”（GELENA）的中心今天（13日，北京时，下同）下午2点钟位于毛里求斯路易港（PORT LOUIS）东南方约2030公里的南印度洋洋面上，就是南纬25.5度、东经76.5度，中心附近最大风力有10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级），中心最低气压为990百帕。
预计，“格莱娜”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度将继续减弱。
卫星红外监测图像
（北京时间2019年2月13日14时00分）

TPXS11 PGTW 131514
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA)
B. 13/1445Z
C. 25.84S
D. 78.64E
E. SIX/MET8
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.0. MET/PT 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1012Z 26.00S 77.77E SSMI
13/1033Z 26.03S 78.02E SSMS
13/1205Z 26.07S 78.60E MMHS
DAVIS

SH, 13, 2019021400, , BEST, 0, 269S, 810E, 45, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 125, 100, 85, 100, 1009, 225, 35, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, GELENA, M,

CURRENT ACTIVITY
13S: GELENA (45kt 995mb)
15P: OMA (55kt 978mb)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.9 S / 81.2 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2019 12 UTC: 28.3 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 15/02/2019 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2019 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 16/02/2019 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 16/02/2019 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 93.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 17/02/2019 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

Wind: 40kt
Scale: Moderate Tropical Storm
Pressure: 995hPa

SH, 13, 2019021406, , BEST, 0, 275S, 838E, 45, 989, TS, 34, NEQ, 175, 60, 50, 130, 1009, 250, 35, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GELENA, ,

There are no tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop over the next three days.
Tropical Cyclone Gelena is currently over the central Indian Ocean, near 26.9S 81.2E (which places it well to the west of the Western Region) at 0800 WST on Thursday 14 February. It is currently weakening as it moves southeast. It may move into the far southwestern parts of the Western Region on Friday night or Saturday morning, but is expected to have weakened below tropical cyclone intensity by this time.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low

TXXS23 KNES 140611
TCSSIO
A. 13S (GELENA)
B. 14/0530Z
C. 28.0S
D. 83.3E
E. THREE/MET-8
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...LLC LOCATED 1/3 DEG INTO DG AND RESULTS IN
DT=3.5. MET=PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/2349Z 26.8S 81.2E SSMIS
...BOLL

水汽图，可能不是巅峰

已经和锋面连上

Wind: 40kt
Scale: Moderate Tropical Storm
Pressure: 998hPa