已入夜（截取自FY-4）

相当好了。

毛里求斯气象局将一级飓风预警升为二级
Cyclone Warning Bulletin Mauritius (English Version)
Fri, Dec 21, 2018
A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius
Fifth Cyclone Bulletin for Mauritius issued at 16h10 on Friday 21 December 2018.
At 1600 hours, Intense Tropical Cyclone CILIDA was centered in latitude 15.1 degrees south and longitude 57.6 degrees east, that is at about 550 kilometers to the North of Mauritius.
It continues to move in a south westerly direction at about 10 km/h. However, during the last hours there are indications that CILIDA has started to track towards the south confirming the anticipated movement towards the southeast by this evening. On this new trajectory 'CILIDA' is approaching our region and is likely to pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues in the morning of Sunday 23 December. A marked deterioration of the weather is expected as from Saturday night and cyclonic conditions may be experienced over Mauritius on Sunday.
A cyclone warning Class II is now in force in Mauritius.
The public in Mauritius is advised to take all precautions.
Cloud bands associated with CILIDA' are influencing the weather over Mauritius causing passing showers. The showers are likely to become moderate with thunderstorms at times. The cloudy to overcast weather with passing showers will persist on Saturday.
Wind will blow from the east-south-east at 25 km/h at first with gusts reaching 60 km/h in exposed areas. It is expected that the wind will strengthen as from Saturday and gusts may reach 110 km/h on Sunday morning.
The sea will be rough. Northerly swells emanating from intense tropical cyclone CILIDA will influence the sea state around Mauritius tonight with breaking waves near the shore mainly to the North and West. The public is strictly advised not to venture at sea.
A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius
A cyclone warning Class II is in force in Mauritius
The next bulletin will be issued by 221

TPXS11 PGTW 211530
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA)
B. 21/1430Z
C. 15.29S
D. 57.62E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR
BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1010Z 14.93S 57.68E ATMS
21/1107Z 14.98S 57.68E SSMI
21/1214Z 15.07S 57.63E SSMS
21/1233Z 15.13S 57.62E MMHS
VEERKAMP

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km
Center Temp : +6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

07S CILIDA 181221 1800 15.6S 57.7E SHEM 130 931

115kt/945hPa, forecast up to 120kt at tau12

Cilida自昨天爆发以来WMG就从来没有有效过，且现在也已经不行了

12z那报135下调至130
SH, 07, 2018122112, , BEST, 0, 151S, 577E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 40, 40, 35, 35, 1008, 220, 10, 0, 10, S, 0, , 0, 0, CILIDA, D,

110kt/940hPa，MFR认为巅峰已过

不过总算气压＜Kenanga了不然一个115kt不如100kt简直太丢人了