6

又有台风了?

AL, 91, 2018100418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 835W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 838W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 840W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al912018,
AL, 91, 2018100518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 843W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

1. A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

这是个背风低压？

gfs日常高潮

91L INVEST 181006 0000 16.5N 84.7W ATL 25 1007

GFS预测横扫美国东海岸

AL, 91, 2018100606, , BEST, 0, 173N, 858W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 110, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

TXNT22 KNES 061216
TCSNTL
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)
B. 06/1145Z
C. 17.9N
D. 84.4W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...ZHU

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 061500
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 86.3W TO 22.5N 86.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 86.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071500Z.//

14L INVEST 181006 1800 17.8N 86.6W ATL 25 1006

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven

14L：http://tieba.baidu.com/p/5905801691