有望成台

飞燕会是这个吗？

GFS本报
94W +90h成旋
飞燕将在+192h时达到巅峰942，+216 949袭击东京
同时，在+66h～+186h这段飞燕的流出全方位齐开，海温全程29℃+，是最佳的加强时段，个人保守上望C3不封顶

请问东北太平洋这个巨型高压是副高吗

GFS貌似对这货上望强度很高

什么情况，下面那一坨还没编扰吗，找不到帖子，能不能发展啊

94W INVEST 180826 0000 11.0N 161.7E WPAC 15 1007

飞燕这个名字很有传奇色彩
2001飞燕：6月末的爆发台，台海南部达到C3，深夜C1突袭福州，短短三小时的风雨，酿成平潭县107人死亡的惨剧。
2006飞燕：深秋的爆发台，快速爆发增强到C4，巅峰短暂而绚丽。
2013飞燕：不予评论

这个海温如果这样走，前面又是哦0风切，会是怎么样的一个台风呢？

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.4N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING
DEVOID OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242256Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS SHOWS GENERAL TROUGHING WITH WEAK WINDS (15 KTS) AND A
250233Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THERE IS SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND BROAD TURNING. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT VARY ON
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

EC继续西调

终于来了个能看的

EC这报支持进东海