看天书一样的

这个好像就是ec和gfs都报出高强度台风的胚胎吧

抗日货 、不过我喜欢

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7N 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1315 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 142243Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING
CRITERIA LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

从时间强度位置来看 很想1989年的Nancy-Owen

未来几天处于高海温地带 发展环境较良好 但是未来99w（苏力？）和其附近活跃的对流会对其有一定的影响 因此未来路径和强度不确定性很大

今年台风产量还可以 质量太差了

91W INVEST 180815 1200 12.5N 165.4E WPAC 15 1008

GFs不看好生成

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 167.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151506Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

91W INVEST 180815 1800 13.4N 163.0E WPAC 20 1003

梦开始的地方就是关岛马里亚纳海域吧