98B INVEST 171016 1800 14.4N 87.6E IO 20 1007

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.4N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 16/1317Z AMSU-B
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED LIMITED BANDING, WEAK STRUCTURE, AND ONLY
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/1509Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED
IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 15-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS FUELING THE REGION OF
MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO
HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH. SST VALUES
ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY
OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

98B INVEST 171017 0000 14.4N 87.3E IO 20 1000

98B INVEST 171017 0600 13.4N 86.6E IO 20 1007

印度洋!!!

98B INVEST 171017 1200 13.5N 86.8E IO 20 1007

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 17/1246Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 17/0342Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS FUELING THE REGION OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KT) WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH, BUT MORE FAVORABLE (<15 KT) VALUES TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

98B INVEST 171017 1800 13.9N 87.4E IO 25 1000

98B INVEST 171018 0000 14.4N 87.2E IO 25 1001

98B INVEST 171018 0600 14.9N 86.3E IO 25 1004