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198楼2017-07-26 15:26
198楼2017-07-26 15:26收起回复
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WTPQ31 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1709 NESAT (1709)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1709 NESAT (1709)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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