【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风2017-Enawo【台风吧】

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【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风2017-Enawo

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扰动95S https://tieba.baidu.com/p/5000730059?pn=1

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IP属地:上海

1楼2017-03-03 14:39回复

** WTIO22 FMEE 030631 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2017
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2017 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER REACHING 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2017/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
MFR率先命名Enawo

IP属地:上海

3楼2017-03-03 14:40

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这环流未来不会太小啊....至于强度还是观望再说吧...

IP属地:上海

7楼2017-03-03 14:50

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20162017
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTER OF ENAWO HAS REMAINED EMBEDDED WITHIN
COLD CLOUD TOP AS THE CLOUD PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS A LARGE
CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED FROM 18Z WITH MOST OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT) REMAINS AT THE SAME LEVEL.
RARE GOOD QUALITY AVAILABLE FIX TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS
DRIFT NORTHWARDS YESTERDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT.
OVERALL THE MOTION IS STILL ASSESSED AS QUASI-STAT. ENAWO IS DELAYING
ITS WESTWARDS MOTION THAT IS HOWEVER STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
LATER TODAY. THIS GENERAL WESTWARDS TO WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION IS
DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR THUS BECOMING THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECAY, INDUCING A GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK. WITH THE ONGOING
DELAYED OF THE WESTWARDS MOTION, THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OR FINAL
APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR HAS BEEN ALSO DELAYED IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE VERY LATEST CYCLE FROM GFS AND IFS (18 UTC CYCLE).
IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT SUFFER FROM A LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN DUE
TO ITS CURRENT VERY SLOW MOTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH
OF MADAGASCAR.=
截取部分MFR的报文，Enawo最近一直在缓慢前行，预计未来西分量将逐渐增大，所处环境亦会改善直至其登陆，所以MFR才会报出巅峰登陆马达的预报...