无故冷了

说句不爱听的，副高比预计弱，今年多次雨带比预计南

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
DENSE OVERCAST WITH LIMITED FORMATIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A 022145Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS A DEEP VERY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE SOUTH GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 02W WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF
TO THE WEST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TAKING NEPARTAK ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK. GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME AS OUTFLOW
STEADILY IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER WARM
WATER.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH. ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
AS IT CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 120 A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSING A SHIFT NORTHWARD.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DIFFERING
SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAU TRACKS, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

上图

大饼专业户，我只服CMA海浪预报。

嗯？环流比较大

WP, 02, 2016070106, , BEST, 0, 75N, 1453E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 02, 2016070112, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1449E, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 02, 2016070118, , BEST, 0, 77N, 1447E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 02, 2016070200, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1446E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 55, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 02, 2016070206, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1447E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 55, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
WP, 02, 2016070212, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1448E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 55, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
WP, 02, 2016070218, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1450E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 190, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 02, 2016070300, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1452E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpA92016 to wp022016,

现在谈路径还早吧？等过几天看看副高怎么样再说吧

中国天气网还整个实时追踪，足以证明很重视，重量级台风

這是一個TS

副高偏强偏南是不是会更可能在台湾福建登陆呢？

现在ec西调、高富帅东调。究竟谁能胜出，我们静观其变。