这个台风真可以让长江流域出梅吗？

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 060600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NEPARTAK 1601 (1601) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC
00HR 19.4N 128.6E 905HPA 68M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 30KM/H
P+12HR 20.7N 125.6E 905HPA 68M/S
P+24HR 21.8N 123.7E 905HPA 68M/S
P+36HR 22.9N 121.9E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 23.8N 120.3E 940HPA 48M/S
P+60HR 25.0N 119.2E 955HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 26.7N 118.5E 980HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 29.9N 119.1E 995HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 33.4N 121.4E 1000HPA 14M/S=
NNNN

湾湾什么时候派飞机实测啊，今天下午？

CMA略微北调：台湾台东成功——福建莆田秀屿区

TPPN10 PGTW 060629
A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
B. 06/0600Z
C. 19.46N
D. 128.47E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO CDO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM EYE EMBEDDED APPROX 43 NM
INTO CNVCTN YIELDS AN E# AND CF (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. ADDED
2.0 FOR BANDING TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 6.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HART

HART7.0 你大爷的

JTWC似乎用的VIS分析

HART打不过DREW

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 060600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY NEPARTAK 1601 (1601) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC
00HR 19.4N 128.6E 905HPA 68M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 30KM/H
P+12HR 20.7N 125.6E 905HPA 68M/S
P+24HR 21.8N 123.7E 905HPA 68M/S
P+36HR 22.9N 121.9E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 23.8N 120.3E 940HPA 48M/S
P+60HR 25.0N 119.2E 955HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 26.7N 118.5E 980HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 29.9N 119.1E 995HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 33.4N 121.4E 1000HPA 14M/S=
NNNN

这货移速快强度强过台湾和其他台风相比还是有优势的吧！

02W NEPARTAK 160706 0600 19.5N 128.4E WPAC 150 911

原来JTWC考虑了这么久就是在商讨怎么合理的压强度，IRBD实在太完美于是乎用了VIS

mdzz
J才给150
是不是和蛤特有什么见不得人的交易