标题：Muyuan Foods Comments on 2015 Annual Results：Earnings will likely refresh the record
发布日期：2016-02-29 7:11:29
内容： Annual results came in line with attributable net profit surgingnearly 643% YoY. The Company posted turnover of Rmb3,003mn(+15.31% YoY), attributable net profit of Rmb596mn (+642.97% YoY)and basic EPS of Rmb1.23 for 2015. Its 4Q15 turnover and net profitwent up 22.76%/323% YoY to Rmb1,057mn/Rmb317mn, respectively.The Company also announced plan to distribute Rmb3.53 in cash plus10 bonus shares for every 10 shares. Annual slaughtering reached 1,919k heads with profit ofRmb310/head. In 2015, the Company slaughtered 1,919k hogs (+3.2%YoY), slightly lower than expected due to depopulation of the pig farmand self-occupation of boars. Factoring in the 114k boars occupied bythe Company, the Companyˇs annual slaughtering has reached 2,035kheads. Our estimate shows, annual selling price went up 8.5% YoY toRmb15.2/kg; the profit margin rose to Rmb310/head; and farming costslipped to Rmb12.3/kg in 2015. Upbeat business climate will likely run through 2016 with sectoralprofit likely to hit Rmb400~500/head. In Jan 2016, the number ofChinaˇs reproductive sows dropped to a new record low of 37.83mnheads, down 17.4% compared to the trough during the last cycle.Moreover, the stock of reproductive sows could continue to declinegiven the farmersˇ reluctance to boost the stock of boars againststrained capital chains. We expect this round of upbeat businessclimate to run through 2016 with hog prices peaking at Rmb22/kg andaveraging Rmb17~18/kg in the year. After the CNY holiday, hog pricesdropped slightly against bleak demand but still stood around Rmb18/kg,showing a large supply-demand gap in the context of exhausted hogproduction capacity. We expect hog prices to re-swing up in Mar-Apr2016. 2016 annual net profit of the Company will likely exceed Rmb1.8bnon scale expansion and cost saving. As of the end of 2015, theCompanyˇs productive biological assets went up 80% YoY, reflectingthe Company has implemented an aggressive production capacity(sow) expansion strategy. This, in our view, lays a firm foundation forthe Companyˇs growth in 2016 and thereafter. We estimate the numberof the Companyˇs reproductive sows has reached 160k heads at theend of 2015, which could support slaughtering of ~3.20mn heads in2016. Going ahead, as farms in Tanghe, Fugou, Huaxian etc. come intooperation, annual slaughtering of the Company is expected to reach1mn~1.5mn heads within the next 5 years and 10mn heads in the longrun. Additionally, full cost of the Companyˇs hog farming business hasdropped below Rmb12/kg along with decline in raw material prices andshrinkage of high-price raw material inventory. We predict it to fallfurther to Rmb11.5/kg in 2Q16. Factoring in our forecast of the annual
发布日期：2016-02-29 7:11:29
内容： Annual results came in line with attributable net profit surgingnearly 643% YoY. The Company posted turnover of Rmb3,003mn(+15.31% YoY), attributable net profit of Rmb596mn (+642.97% YoY)and basic EPS of Rmb1.23 for 2015. Its 4Q15 turnover and net profitwent up 22.76%/323% YoY to Rmb1,057mn/Rmb317mn, respectively.The Company also announced plan to distribute Rmb3.53 in cash plus10 bonus shares for every 10 shares. Annual slaughtering reached 1,919k heads with profit ofRmb310/head. In 2015, the Company slaughtered 1,919k hogs (+3.2%YoY), slightly lower than expected due to depopulation of the pig farmand self-occupation of boars. Factoring in the 114k boars occupied bythe Company, the Companyˇs annual slaughtering has reached 2,035kheads. Our estimate shows, annual selling price went up 8.5% YoY toRmb15.2/kg; the profit margin rose to Rmb310/head; and farming costslipped to Rmb12.3/kg in 2015. Upbeat business climate will likely run through 2016 with sectoralprofit likely to hit Rmb400~500/head. In Jan 2016, the number ofChinaˇs reproductive sows dropped to a new record low of 37.83mnheads, down 17.4% compared to the trough during the last cycle.Moreover, the stock of reproductive sows could continue to declinegiven the farmersˇ reluctance to boost the stock of boars againststrained capital chains. We expect this round of upbeat businessclimate to run through 2016 with hog prices peaking at Rmb22/kg andaveraging Rmb17~18/kg in the year. After the CNY holiday, hog pricesdropped slightly against bleak demand but still stood around Rmb18/kg,showing a large supply-demand gap in the context of exhausted hogproduction capacity. We expect hog prices to re-swing up in Mar-Apr2016. 2016 annual net profit of the Company will likely exceed Rmb1.8bnon scale expansion and cost saving. As of the end of 2015, theCompanyˇs productive biological assets went up 80% YoY, reflectingthe Company has implemented an aggressive production capacity(sow) expansion strategy. This, in our view, lays a firm foundation forthe Companyˇs growth in 2016 and thereafter. We estimate the numberof the Companyˇs reproductive sows has reached 160k heads at theend of 2015, which could support slaughtering of ~3.20mn heads in2016. Going ahead, as farms in Tanghe, Fugou, Huaxian etc. come intooperation, annual slaughtering of the Company is expected to reach1mn~1.5mn heads within the next 5 years and 10mn heads in the longrun. Additionally, full cost of the Companyˇs hog farming business hasdropped below Rmb12/kg along with decline in raw material prices andshrinkage of high-price raw material inventory. We predict it to fallfurther to Rmb11.5/kg in 2Q16. Factoring in our forecast of the annual
