标题：Siyuan Electric2015 results miss slightly; ample backlog to secure 2016 growth
发布日期：2016-01-26 7:06:23
内容： Earnings pre-announced to -16.97% YoY Siyuan pre-announced 2015 revenue +9% YoY to Rmb4bn andnet profit -16.97% YoY to Rmb379mn. Trends to watch Earnings slightly missed expectations due to: 1) grossmargin -3.9ppt in 1~3Q15 amid a product mix adjustment andASP cut; and 2) a Rmb102mn decline in investment income fromRmb124mn in 2014 from the sale of Pinggao Electric. GIS, capacitor and substation automation business tosecure 2016 growth. GIS products further ramped up in 2015and contributed ~Rmb1bn revenue. As the 550kV GIS is to bequalified for State Grid bidding in 2016, GIS products will likelyramp up. Promotion of UHV helped garner Rmb119mn in bids forUHV capacitors in 2015 and more are expected in 2016.Substation automation products will likely be qualified to bid on220kV State Grid protection equipment. Overseas expansion to make breakthrough. Since 2014,Siyuan has established subsidiaries in Kenya, Mexico and Russia.Total overseas EPC orders may rise >30% YoY. The “One Belt,One Road” strategy may double new overseas orders in 2016. Rmb5.051bn in new orders to secure 2016 growth. Neworders largely flat with 2014. As of end-2015, the backlogwas >Rmb5bn (2015 revenue Rmb4bn). Earnings forecast. We trim our 2015/16e revenue forecast10%/16% to Rmb4bn/Rmb4.54bn and trim our 2015/16e netprofit estimates 4%/13% to Rmb378mn/Rmb457mn; giving2017e revenue/net profit of Rmb5.2bn/Rmb541mn. Valuation and recommendation Maintain BUY; 25x 2015e, 21x 2016e P/E. TP is 26x 2016e P/E. Risks Grid investment and new business expansion miss expectations.
发布日期：2016-01-26 7:06:23
内容： Earnings pre-announced to -16.97% YoY Siyuan pre-announced 2015 revenue +9% YoY to Rmb4bn andnet profit -16.97% YoY to Rmb379mn. Trends to watch Earnings slightly missed expectations due to: 1) grossmargin -3.9ppt in 1~3Q15 amid a product mix adjustment andASP cut; and 2) a Rmb102mn decline in investment income fromRmb124mn in 2014 from the sale of Pinggao Electric. GIS, capacitor and substation automation business tosecure 2016 growth. GIS products further ramped up in 2015and contributed ~Rmb1bn revenue. As the 550kV GIS is to bequalified for State Grid bidding in 2016, GIS products will likelyramp up. Promotion of UHV helped garner Rmb119mn in bids forUHV capacitors in 2015 and more are expected in 2016.Substation automation products will likely be qualified to bid on220kV State Grid protection equipment. Overseas expansion to make breakthrough. Since 2014,Siyuan has established subsidiaries in Kenya, Mexico and Russia.Total overseas EPC orders may rise >30% YoY. The “One Belt,One Road” strategy may double new overseas orders in 2016. Rmb5.051bn in new orders to secure 2016 growth. Neworders largely flat with 2014. As of end-2015, the backlogwas >Rmb5bn (2015 revenue Rmb4bn). Earnings forecast. We trim our 2015/16e revenue forecast10%/16% to Rmb4bn/Rmb4.54bn and trim our 2015/16e netprofit estimates 4%/13% to Rmb378mn/Rmb457mn; giving2017e revenue/net profit of Rmb5.2bn/Rmb541mn. Valuation and recommendation Maintain BUY; 25x 2015e, 21x 2016e P/E. TP is 26x 2016e P/E. Risks Grid investment and new business expansion miss expectations.
