发几张0000z的云图

路径党开始发力了，

巴维（日本台风编号9号）位于小泉空军基地东南方向1695公里处，过去6小时内以每小时22公里（12节）的速度向西北偏西方向移动。最大显著波高为17.1米（56英尺）。
预计未来30小时内，该气旋将继续向西北偏西方向移动，随着冲绳上的引导锋向九州北部移动并开始减弱。
36小时后，一股深厚的亚热带脊从东北方向形成，并成为主要的引导气流，使台风在预报期间剩余时间内向西北方向移动。该路径将在约4天后使台风中心抵达台湾东北部附近，随后登陆中国东部。
对正在进行的眼壁替换周期的分析表明，该周期将在短期内完成，使系统中心区域得以重新整合，并在接下来24小时内于有利环境中实现短暂的增强。
预计在24小时后，持续30至35公里/小时（15至20节）的东北风切变将成为导致其逐渐减弱的主要因素，直至最终在中国东部登陆，随后在陆地上迅速消散。
轨道引导模型在向西北方向转向方面仍保持良好一致，未来三天内轨道扩散极小。NAVGEM和ECMWF确定性模型提供了最西端的解决方案，表明其路径将经过台湾东北部。
除西部的异常点外，横跨路径的扩散范围在登陆后5天内增加至259公里。沿航迹方向的扩散在接下来的4天内仍保持较小，随后在5天时扩大至444公里，其中NAVGEM模型的异常点显著更慢。
JTWC路径预报与多模型共识基本一致，但为考虑NAVGE和ECMWF的贡献，略微向指南东侧进行了修正。
COAMPS-TC、HAFS-A 和 HWRF 对未来24小时内短暂增强的强度预测结果高度一致，所有模型均认为在预报剩余时间内，巴维台风最终将逐渐减弱。
Decay-SHIPS方案的强度仍处于预测值的较低端，联合台风警报中心（JTWC）的强度预报以中等置信度给出，比多模型共识高出10至20公里/小时（5至10节），以考虑其对风暴的影响以及短期内增强的预期。
机翻

前面风切会继续增大还是会减小

仙之人兮列如麻

07/06动图

我本来还想去平潭的，好了现在去不了了

JMA
ZCZC
IUCC10 RJTD 070300
ORIGINATING CENTRE 34
IDENTIFICATION OF ORIGINATING/GENERATING SUB-CENTRE 0
YEAR 2026
MONTH 7
DAY 7
HOUR 3
MINUTE 0
SATELLITE IDENTIFIER 174
SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS METHOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 2
DELAYED DESCRIPTOR REPLICATION FACTOR 1
WMO LONG STORM NAME b'Bavi '
TYPHOON INTERNATIONAL COMMON NUMBER (TYPHOON COMMITTEE) b'2609'
IDENTIFICATION NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11
METEOROLOGICAL ATTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANCE 1
LATITUDE (COARSE ACCURACY) 16.31
LONGITUDE (COARSE ACCURACY) 139.22
METEOROLOGICAL ATTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANCE None
TIME INTERVAL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS 4
DIRECTION OF MOTION OF FEATURE 281
SPEED OF MOTION OF FEATURE 6.69
ACCURACY OF GEOGRAPHICAL POSITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2
MEAN DIAMETER OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3
APPARENT 24-HOUR CHANGE IN INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 10
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE None
DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE None
CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER None
MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE None
TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) None
PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE None
CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER None
FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE None
TYPE OF THE FINAL T-NUMBER None
NNNN

1hr對比

ZCZC
ABPW10 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/070300Z-070600ZJUL2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZJUL2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07JUL26 0000Z, TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED 09W (BAVI) FROM SUPER TYPHOON TO TYPHOON//
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有没可能这次置换还会持续很久，因为外外眼出现了。然后三颠就是最后一颠，强度145kt到155kt？后面到台湾岛前缓慢减弱，这样很可能会超台登陆，不管登陆哪。

这个底层看着比二颠时的底层稳定多了