远洋一枝海棠花

量了一下昨天和今天的眼径，还是扩了一点点的，但也只是从标准中眼变成了稍微大一点的中眼

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 13.5N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 14.1N 146.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 060600UTC 14.8N 143.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 070600UTC 16.1N 138.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 080600UTC 17.2N 132.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 090600UTC 19.1N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 100600UTC 22.4N 124.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

巴威又一次达到145Kt，今夜有望冲击150Kt

搬一下CIMSS的ERC分析

下一张暖心何时

FKPQ31 RJTD 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20260705/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: BAVI
ADVISORY NR: 2026/18
OBS PSN: 05/0600Z N1330 E14805
CB: WI N0820 E14615 - N1250 E14405 - N1655 E14915
- N1315 E15210 - N1040 E15120 - N0820 E14850
- N0820 E14615
TOP FL540
MOV: NW 11KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 910HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1200Z N1355 E14705
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 05/1800Z N1405 E14600
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0000Z N1425 E14455
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/0600Z N1450 E14350
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 115KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20260705/1200Z =

这估计是巴威的最后一舞，也是最绚丽的一舞，江浙沪恐遭巨灾

眼屎(眼温也是一直上不了B14 18℃ B13 20℃)

FKPQ31 RJTD 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20260705/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: BAVI
ADVISORY NR: 2026/18
OBS PSN: 05/0600Z N1330 E14805
CB: WI N0820 E14615 - N1250 E14405 - N1655 E14915
- N1315 E15210 - N1040 E15120 - N0820 E14850
- N0820 E14615
TOP FL540
MOV: NW 11KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 910HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1200Z N1355 E14705
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 05/1800Z N1405 E14600
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0000Z N1425 E14455
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/0600Z N1450 E14350
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 115KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20260705/1200Z =

感觉现在像海棠

颜值依旧稳定发挥 另外顶超预警

WTPQ20 BABJ 050600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY BAVI 2609 (2609) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC
00HR 13.4N 148.2E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 380KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
320KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 19KM/H
P+12HR 14.0N 146.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 14.9N 143.7E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 15.5N 141.0E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 16.1N 138.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+60HR 16.8N 135.2E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 17.5N 132.6E 920HPA 60M/S
P+96HR 19.4N 128.5E 925HPA 58M/S
P+120HR 23.3N 124.6E 930HPA 55M/S=