WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 10.3N 159.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 12.2N 158.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 030000UTC 12.8N 156.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 13.3N 152.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 13.9N 149.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 060000UTC 15.2N 145.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 070000UTC 16.4N 140.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 10.3N 159.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 12.2N 158.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 030000UTC 12.8N 156.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 13.3N 152.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 13.9N 149.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 060000UTC 15.2N 145.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 070000UTC 16.4N 140.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
超强台风鸿雁
个人认为巴威将会是一个多巅峰，多形态的超级气旋，很可能是2026年7月的开篇大戏。从未来强度上来说，先不提前期的发展历程，关岛和北马里亚纳群岛区域海面的海温和潜热值极其优秀，巴威前期略微调整结构后，很可能直接开进这个区域，届时绝对精彩
