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厕所对06Z定强的分析
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT 130 KTS, CONSIDERING THE AGENCIES DVORAK INTENSITY ASSESSMENT ENVELOPE OF T6.0-T7.5, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 127 TO 143 KTS.
初始强度以中等置信度估定为130节，参考各机构德沃夏克（DVORAK）强度评估范围为T6.0-T7.5，客观估计值介于127-143节之间。
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 120311Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 133 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 128 KTS AT 120536Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 143 KTS AT 120530Z
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HAFS SOLUTION AND IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PROJECTING A 140-145 KTS PEAK PRIOR TO TAU 24. THIS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, BUT IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW REMAINING RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES, AS WELL AS HAFS. OF NOTE, THE RI SIGNAL HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, INDICATING THAT THE PEAK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
在强度方面，官方预报与HAFS模式高度一致，略高于多模式平均值，置信度为中等，预计在TAU 24之前达到140-145节峰值。这一预报较全球确定性模式和统计-动力模式更为激进，但仍得到剩余少数快速增强指数（RI Indices）以及HAFS模式的支持。值得注意的是，自上一期警报以来，RI信号已有所减弱，表明峰值很可能在未来数小时内出现。 预报置信度：
路径 00-72小时：中等
路径 72-120小时：低
强度 00-72小时：中等
强度 72-120小时：中等
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT 130 KTS, CONSIDERING THE AGENCIES DVORAK INTENSITY ASSESSMENT ENVELOPE OF T6.0-T7.5, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 127 TO 143 KTS.
初始强度以中等置信度估定为130节，参考各机构德沃夏克（DVORAK）强度评估范围为T6.0-T7.5，客观估计值介于127-143节之间。
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 120311Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 133 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 128 KTS AT 120536Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 143 KTS AT 120530Z
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HAFS SOLUTION AND IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PROJECTING A 140-145 KTS PEAK PRIOR TO TAU 24. THIS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, BUT IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW REMAINING RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES, AS WELL AS HAFS. OF NOTE, THE RI SIGNAL HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, INDICATING THAT THE PEAK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
在强度方面，官方预报与HAFS模式高度一致，略高于多模式平均值，置信度为中等，预计在TAU 24之前达到140-145节峰值。这一预报较全球确定性模式和统计-动力模式更为激进，但仍得到剩余少数快速增强指数（RI Indices）以及HAFS模式的支持。值得注意的是，自上一期警报以来，RI信号已有所减弱，表明峰值很可能在未来数小时内出现。 预报置信度：
路径 00-72小时：中等
路径 72-120小时：低
强度 00-72小时：中等
强度 72-120小时：中等
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