难绷法门寺T1.5 25KT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 171.7E
AT 050000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD11F LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.3 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5. PT= 1.5 WHILE MET IS NOT AVAILABLE. FT BASED
ON PT. THUS, YEILDING T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.